Syracuse, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

492
FXUS61 KBGM 250718
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
318 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions again today with increasing chances of rain and
thunderstorms this evening. A strong cold front moves through
Saturday with cooler and windy conditions into Sunday before
warm weather returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Warm conditions with well above average temperatures expected
for Friday; mid to high 70s, with some valley areas having
potential to hit 80 degrees again, similar to yesterday. A weak
warm front associated with an approaching system will lift
northward across our area, which will increase chances for
scattered rain showers this evening. There are chances for some
isolated thunderstorms, but lack of instability may limit
initiation. Rain showers and slight chances for embedded storms
continue through Friday night.

The main cold frontal passage happens Saturday early to mid
morning, and rain intensity will likely increase with frontal
forcing. Rain showers continue through Saturday morning, but
will likely start to taper off through the afternoon. With PWAT
values of 1.1 to 1.3, overall expected precipitation totals of
0.5 to 1.5 inches over the course of 24 hours, as well as high
values needed to exceed flash flood guidance, flooding of any
sort will likely not be a concern. Saturday temperatures, even
with the passage of a cold front, will still be above average in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 PM Update...

A cold front will be pushing eastward across the region during
the day on Saturday, with showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm. Showers will become more isolated to scattered
overnight Saturday as lingering wrap around moisture pushes
into Central NY. Temperatures turn much cooler behind the front
as well, with lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s as cold air
advection takes hold on NW winds. The winds will be fairly
strong at 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph expected Saturday night
and through the day on Sunday. High pressure will dry things
out for Sunday and ridging will start pushing warmer air back
into the region. Mostly sunny skies and good boundary layer
mixing will push highs into the mid-50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
135 PM Update

A ridge of high pressure will be in place for the start of next
week. Temperatures will once again climb above normal across the
region on Monday, as highs reach the upper 60s to low 70s. The
ridge axis moves overhead Tuesday morning, with 850mb
temperatures peaking around +14 C in the afternoon. Guidance
supports high reaching well above average levels in the upper
70s to low/mid-80s over the entire region. However, our next
cold front will likely be approaching late in the day Tuesday.
Still a lot of uncertainty on the overall timing of the front,
and if the front arrives in the late afternoon hours around peak
heating, then more instability will be available and thus a
higher potential for thunderstorms. This will be something to
watch closely as we get closer in time and see more details.
Some guidance is showing deep layer shear on the order of 40-50
kts as well, so severe potential will depend on the timing of
the incoming cold front.

By Wednesday, the cold front will be sliding south with just a
low chance for a few lingering showers. There will be the
potential for a large temperature gradient...with 60s to low 70s
in CNY/Southern Tier and well into the 70s expected for NE
PA...if current frontal timing holds.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for all terminals through 00Z Saturday.
An incoming front will bring stratiform rain that will gradually
deteriorate after 00Z, falling to MVFR between 01Z and 03Z.
Probability for conditions to worsen to IFR around 04/05Z for
all terminals is increasing, but decided to not include it in
this update due to confidence in timing. This will be the main
focus for the 12Z TAF update.


Outlook...

Friday evening through Saturday... Showers with possible
restrictions.

Saturday night through Monday...Mostly quiet and dry with high
pressure overhead.

Tuesday...Low potential (<30%) for afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...KL